CANSECO OVERTAKES RODRIQUEZ!!!!

It has been a long hard fight for both candidates Canseco and Rodriquez. This election has come to be known as one of the tightest races in the country but it has finally all come to an end with Canseco easily defeating his opponent Rodriquez. Canseco placed a solid lead over Rodriquez beginning in Bexar county and after that, Rodriquez simply wasn't able to shake that lead off. Canseco has said since day one that the 23rd district race was about "taking the gavel out of Nancy Pelosi's hand". And it seems like that dream has actually become a reality. I must say that i'm not surprised that Canseco won, because from the way the early campaigning was going I did feel like it was going to go in his favor. However i'm a little surprised that it wasn't a closer race. It will be interesting to see how where the republicans take the country from this point on.

Final Days Before the Election

It's finally the final days before the election and predictions are beginning to be made about the final outcome between Canseco and Rodriquez. In Paul Herrnson's chapter nine, he outlines what he feels are the major predictors for an election in tables (pg. 247-252). Through use of these tables, Herrnson is able to "mathematically" predict who has a better shot at taking the election, either Incumbent Rodriquez or challenger Canseco. However there is some uncertainty about how solid these "mathematical" solutions are, because if done fully out, it would Pitt Rodriquez as the clear winner, however according to some polls Canseco may still be taking the lead.


Ever since the beginning there have been statements about the 23rd district race and how close of an election it was to be. However despite the "closeness" of the race Canseco and his people have been reporting that according to their polls, he's had a lead over incumbent Rodriquez since the start. http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/08/texas-canseco-rodriguez-poll.html 


This was surprising to me in regards to Herrnson's theory about incumbency vs. challengers, especially since new reports show that Rodriquez was actually leading Canseco in funding, as well as in support from known big name goverment officials, such as former president Bill Clinton who vouched for Rodriquez as well as Democrats in general at a fundraising event claiming "“I know (Rodriguez’s) mind, I know his heart, I know his record,” Clinton said early in his nearly 50-minute speech. “Under normal circumstances, he would be easily re-elected.” 

As if this election wasn't complicated enough, there is even more doubt that his arisen as to whether Canseco's poll taking which placed him in the lead were even accurate! Apparently Canseco had been using the same  "partisan" firm polls repeatedly  that always put him first. But according to recent polling from The New York Times, the 23rd district has been leaning Democratic with Ciro ahead with 49.5 of the vote.http://74.220.219.63/~cirodrod/featured/quico-canseco%E2%80%99s-running-scared/

Either way, this seems to have been a very shifty campaign, and we will find out the truth to this election in a few days.